We tested 27 feed → stock lead-lag relationships across 9 alt-data families. 13 were run through independent re-verification — consistent windows, non-overlapping significance, data-bug fixes, out-of-sample checks. 12 failed; 1 passed, marginally. Only pairings that pass re-verification are published.
The original 27-pairing ranked gallery (built_utc 2026-07-14) is retired. Every pairing that could be re-derived from stored data was adversarially re-verified from scratch: raw feed tables audited for natural-key duplication, windows rebuilt on the longest clean common span, ICs recomputed on non-overlapping subsamples at every phase offset, chronological 70/30 IS/OOS re-run, outlier and adjacent-horizon sensitivity tested. Full detail in LEADLAG-PROOF-V2.md.
Borderline — entering forward validation, not a trade.
— h=1 daily observations are inherently non-overlapping, so n=497 is real, not inflated.
— Not outlier-driven: dropping the single largest observation gives IC +0.116 (t=2.60) — the effect gets slightly stronger, not weaker.
— A rolling-7 variant of the same signal confirms independently: IC +0.118 (t=2.64), OOS +0.136.
— Feed hygiene checked directly: 922/922 distinct signal dates, 500/500 distinct CNBC closes, zero duplicate rows.
— The effect collapses at the very next horizon: the adjacent 2-day lag gives IC +0.016 and the OOS sign flips. This is a one-day phenomenon, not a multi-day drift.
— Real-time tradeability caveat: day-t diner data is only complete after day t ends, so trading the day-t close on same-day data is not actually achievable — the live rule (LL-OPENTABLE-CAKE) trades the next available close, which is the honest, tradeable version of this.
OpenTable US seated diners (YoY) (ink, left axis) plotted against CAKEclose (blue, right axis) over the real overlap window, and the IC-by-horizon bar chart showing where the lead peaks — and where it collapses one day later.
Borderline, entering forward validation — research, not a trade.
Signal = OpenTable US country-level daily YoY seated diners, rolling7day_yoy_pct (7-day trailing mean, as documented), first-differenced day-over-day for the IC predictor; chart shows the rolling7day_yoy_pct level indexed (additively rebased since the series crosses zero). Real independent recomputation on the same table/scope as the method doc's flagship series.
Chart replication check: independently recomputed IC +0.106 (t=2.37, n=498) from the stored chart series — consistent with the published figure. The other 5 chart blocks from the original gallery were removed after their pairings failed verification.
Each of these was a published, ranked result in the original gallery. Each is listed with the re-derived statistic and the specific reason it failed.
| Pairing | Published | Verified | Failure reason |
|---|---|---|---|
lumber_price_ppi → LOW 3 months | IC −0.405, t=−2.73, n=40 | −0.555 median honest construction, best phase t=−1.29, n=7 per phase | seasonality artifact + n-inflated 2× n was inflated ≈ 2× by pooling 5 near-duplicate BLS PPI series as if independent. Separately, and fatally on its own: the effect vanishes completely under seasonal adjustment — the SA series gives IC +0.04 on the identical window, while the isolated seasonal factor alone gives IC −0.66 (t=−3.81), stronger than the published signal. The annual lumber calendar happened to coincide with LOW's calendar return pattern for ~2 cycles. |
tsa_passenger_volumes → DAL 3 days | IC +0.178, t=2.40, n=124 | +0.169, t=1.07, n=41 | sign-flip IS/OOS Under consistent (deseasonalized, publication-lagged, non-overlapping) methodology, t drops to 1.07. In-sample is −0.04 vs out-of-sample +0.64 — a straight sign flip; the aggregate was carried entirely by the last ~3 months of a 128-bar window. |
lumber_price_ppi → HD 3 months | IC −0.307, t=−1.99, n=40 | −0.179 median, best |t|=1.88, n=117 | sub-significant tilt (demoted to candidate) Honestly rebuilt on the full 2016–2026 window (n=117): sign is consistent across horizons and not outlier-driven — a real but modest tilt — but the best non-overlapping phase only reaches |t|=1.88, under the ≥2 bar. The published t was already sub-threshold before this re-check. |
nrc_reactor_status → SO 1 week | IC −0.328, t=−2.46, n=52 | −0.146, t=−1.49, n=103 | window-truncation Feed data verified perfect against official NRC archives (1,476/1,476 rows match). But the published stat used only a 1-year database window; the full 105-week window — which official archives make available — collapses to t=−1.49. The published stat was the short window the tool happened to have loaded. |
nhtsa_recall_filings → F 1–2 months | IC −0.267 (m2), t=−2.06 | −0.188, t=−0.86, n=22 | data bug (dedup) NHTSA's potaff field is a campaign-level total repeated on every model/component row — a confirmed 56–100× overcount. After deduping to one row per campaign, the effect is dead: all change-based ICs are |t|<1, and in-sample/out-of-sample signs disagree at every horizon. |
box_office_daily → IMAX 2 weeks (contrarian) | IC −0.294, t=−2.18, n=52 | −0.145, ~−1.1, n=103 | phase artifact The published number reproduces exactly — as one specific non-overlapping sampling phase (phase0, t=−2.21). The other phase is null (−0.013, t=−0.09). A real effect does not live in exactly one anchor day; full-sample significance is p=0.145. |
opentable_diners → CMG/DPZ/TXRH/EAT/DRI 1 week (basket) | IC +0.155..+0.175, t≈2, n=130 | basket +0.059, t=0.58, n=98 | impossible n / noise signature Published n=130 non-overlapping weekly obs is impossible on the ~500-bar CNBC window (max ~98). Per-ticker weekly ICs range from −0.047 (DPZ) to +0.073 (CMG) — essentially zero — and the basket IC swings −0.112..+0.088 across the 5 weekly anchor-day phases: a textbook noise signature, not a signal. |
nrc_reactor_status → NRG 2 weeks | IC −0.242, “sign-consistent every horizon” | +0.06 full window; per-horizon −0.14..+0.81 | sign-flip on full window The published sign-consistency claim does not hold on the full 104-week window: w1 −0.006, w2 +0.060, w3 +0.091. Window truncation again (published n=51 vs 104 clean weeks available). Not outlier-driven — the one large NRG week was a real acquisition event, but the rest of the series doesn't support the direction. |
nhtsa_recall_filings → GM 2 months | IC +0.332, t=2.51, OOS +0.453 | +0.266, t=2.09 (phase0 only); OOS +0.063 | phase artifact Survives the dedup fix arithmetically, but the entire effect lives in one sampling phase (t=2.09); the other phase is flat (−0.009). Out-of-sample collapses to +0.063 versus the published +0.453. The sign also contradicts the Ford recall mechanism — as the original study itself flagged before publishing anyway. |
box_office_daily → DIS / PEJ 1–2 months | PEJ m2 IC +0.322 | +0.164, t=0.50, n=11 non-overlapping | small-n / one-outlier-driven Reproduces exactly, then fails every gate: n=11 is under the ≥15 monthly floor, and the DIS leg's t=0.84 collapses to +0.064 when a single month is dropped. Direction is plausible (sign holds IS/OOS on n_oos=7); the evidence is not adequate. |
indeed_postings_index → ADP / PAYX 2 weeks | IC +0.104, t_no=1.96 (ADP); +0.097 (PAYX) | +0.102, median t=0.69, n=48 | phase artifact + missing price data The published t=1.96 was a favorable-phase artifact — across all 10 non-overlapping phase offsets, t ranges +0.26..+1.43. In-sample effect is essentially zero (all the signal sits in the last 30% of the window). Separately fatal: PAYX has zero close rows anywhere on the box — the published PAYX companion number was never testable. |
tsa_passenger_volumes → AAL / JETS 1 week | IC +0.313 (AAL) / +0.285 (JETS) | JETS +0.227, t=1.14, n=26; AAL untestable | missing price data / small-n AAL has zero close rows anywhere on the box — half the published pairing was never reproducible from stored data. JETS fails the n≥30 weekly floor and the |t|≥2 bar; the daily variant flips to −0.02. |
This page reports a verification process, not a trading system. The one survivor is a lead-lag relationship entering forward paper-validation — not a proven trade, not investment advice. The forward ledger (/track-record) is where it earns the word “signal.”
LL-OPENTABLE-CAKE forward-tracks from here, alongside 9 retired strategies retained in the record with their retirement reasons. See /track-record for the live paper ledger, or /demo for the Research Lab.