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Macro & Inflation Nowcast · monthly ban:none tA

NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations — inflation

Median 1yr and 3yr-ahead household inflation expectations, plus category-level (rent, gas, food, medical) expectations

Feed detail
Measures
Median 1yr and 3yr-ahead household inflation expectations, plus category-level (rent, gas, food, medical) expectations
Source
newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce, published CSV microdata + summary
Access
csv
Cadence
monthlyupdates roughly monthly
Thesis
Household inflation expectations feed into wage demands and pricing behavior (expectations-augmented Phillips curve); category splits let you isolate rent/gas/food expectation shifts before they show in realized CPI
Maps to
CPI (all categories), TIPS breakeven trades, Fed policy path
Crowdedness
contested
Tier
tA
Ban-risk
ban:none
Where this stands

This is a catalogued data feed with a research idea attached, not a validated edge. Being listed here means it has a specific source and a one-sentence causal mechanism mapped to what it should move — it doesn’t mean it has cleared the five-stage validation gate (point-in-time hygiene, out-of-sample holdout, multiple-testing correction, and the portfolio-layer backstop). As of today, every score on this site is prior-only; zero signals in the catalog have been promoted to “measured” status. See the methodology page for the full validation process and current counts.

Browse the rest of Macro & Inflation NowcastHigh-frequency price and activity series that nowcast CPI, GDP, and other macro prints before the official release.