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Rates, Plumbing & Crypto · monthly ban:none tA

Treasury quarterly refunding announcement (QRA) coupon/bill mix

Announced $ split between coupon (notes/bonds) vs bill issuance for the upcoming quarter

Feed detail
Measures
Announced $ split between coupon (notes/bonds) vs bill issuance for the upcoming quarter
Source
home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/quarterly-refunding (press release + charts, quarterly)
Access
pdf
Cadence
monthlyupdates roughly monthly
Thesis
Yellen/Bessent-style skew toward bills vs coupons is a direct, telegraphed supply signal that moves term premium and duration positioning before the auctions even happen
Maps to
UST 10y/30y term premium, duration-sensitive trades
Crowdedness
contested
Tier
tA
Ban-risk
ban:none
Where this stands

This is a catalogued data feed with a research idea attached, not a validated edge. Being listed here means it has a specific source and a one-sentence causal mechanism mapped to what it should move — it doesn’t mean it has cleared the five-stage validation gate (point-in-time hygiene, out-of-sample holdout, multiple-testing correction, and the portfolio-layer backstop). As of today, every score on this site is prior-only; zero signals in the catalog have been promoted to “measured” status. See the methodology page for the full validation process and current counts.

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