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Behavioral & Folklore · daily ban:medium tC

Hershey Lipstick Index proxy — Ulta clearance depth

count of lipstick/lip-color SKUs marked clearance/% off on Ulta.com category page

Feed detail
Measures
count of lipstick/lip-color SKUs marked clearance/% off on Ulta.com category page
Source
ulta.com lip makeup category, sorted by discount
Access
scrape-hostile
Cadence
dailyupdates once a day
Thesis
Lipstick Index: small affordable luxuries rise in recessions; deepening lipstick clearance = weakening discretionary demand
Maps to
XLY, consumer discretionary, WMT/TGT basket
Crowdedness
contested
Tier
tC
Ban-risk
ban:medium
Where this stands

This is a catalogued data feed with a research idea attached, not a validated edge. Being listed here means it has a specific source and a one-sentence causal mechanism mapped to what it should move — it doesn’t mean it has cleared the five-stage validation gate (point-in-time hygiene, out-of-sample holdout, multiple-testing correction, and the portfolio-layer backstop). As of today, every score on this site is prior-only; zero signals in the catalog have been promoted to “measured” status. See the methodology page for the full validation process and current counts.

Browse the rest of Behavioral & FolkloreSearch trends, sentiment, and non-standard behavioral signals outside existing vendor panels.