Every signal below is graded through the same gauntlet — non-overlapping t, Newey-West HAC, Deflated Sharpe, FDR. We publish what survives and label what doesn’t. Snapshot 2026-07-17.
Signals · research program · honest tiers
Two signals. Plotted with the trades we’d have called.
We run a signal-research loop over our data. Of everything tested, exactly one clears the defensible bar and one is on the watchlist. Below is each one drawn on its instrument — the shaded windows and marks are the positions we’d have signaled — with the compounded equity of following it. No cherry-picking: the equity curves include the drawdowns, and the watchlist signal is labeled as exactly that, not dressed up.
The research loop · loop #57 · updated 2026-07-17 11:18 UTC
Every 20 minutes, we grade our data through the gauntlet
47.8%feeds coverage
24,190hypotheses tested
521series graded
1candidates
70forward-track obs
Metrics we’re chasing
Defensible signals1 / 3
livestock LE-Dec (t_hac 5.05, DSR 0.965)
Best candidate OOS Sharpe0.76 / 1
monero x-asset fade @25bps
Feeds graded521 / 1,601
every real feed table, at least once
Defensible = net Sharpe>=1.0 @25bps OOS + DSR>=0.95 + forward-confirmed. We publish only what survives — the number that matters is candidates, and it moves only when the data earns it.
DEFENSIBLE
Live Cattle — December seasonal
CME Live Cattle (LE)
1.45×strategy equity
The signal: Go LONG live cattle for the month of December, flat the rest of the year.
Shaded = the months we'd have been long.
Compounded return of following the signal — starts at 1.00×.
1.13sharpe
5.05t hac
0.965dsr
10years
clears HAC + Deflated-Sharpe gateverdict
The single signal project-wide that clears the defensible bar (Newey-West HAC t=5.05, DSR=0.965).
WATCHLIST
Monero — cross-asset dislocation fade
XMR-USD (vs BTC/Gold/SPY)
2.39×strategy equity
The signal: When XMR dislocates >1σ from its BTC/Gold/SPY fair value, fade it (mean-reversion), hold ~5 days.
● short ● long — each fade we'd have signaled.
Compounded return of following the signal — starts at 1.00×.
0.76oos sharpe
25cost bps
0.95beta btc
0.18beta gld
0.12beta spy
0.43r2
real edge but below defensible bar — forward-track onlyverdict
OOS (2023-26) net of 25bps. Parameter-sensitive (best of 12 combos), hit<50% — WATCHLIST, not proven.
How to read the tiers
Defensible = clears Newey-West HAC t and the Deflated-Sharpe bar against the full multiple-testing ledger. This is the signal we stand behind. Watchlist= a real effect with positive out-of-sample return, but below the defensible bar (parameter-sensitive or thin) — we forward-track it live and promote only if it holds up. We would rather show you one honest signal than ten we can’t defend.