Catalog / Geopolitics & Conflict

Geopolitics & Conflict data feeds

Conflict, sanctions, and geopolitical-risk signals mapped to the equities, currencies, and commodities they move.

total in this domain

free / public

🔒 locked

Public feeds

Polymarket conflict-contract order book depth

Polymarket public API (clob.polymarket.com) — no key needed for market data

Prediction-market odds shift ahead of newswires because informed traders position first; depth changes signal conviction vs noise → defense stocks, oil, gold, VIX-adjacent hedges

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Taiwan Strait median-line PLA incursion count

Taiwan Ministry of National Defense daily 'PLA activities' PDF/press release (mnd.gov.tw)

Sortie count is the most direct clockable leading indicator of PLA pressure escalation around Taiwan → TSMC/semiconductor supply chain risk, Taiwan dollar, defense stocks

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Strait of Hormuz tanker AIS density

EIA's Strait of Hormuz brief (updates AIS-derived flows) or free AIS via MarineTraffic density map screenshots

A visible drop in tanker density is the earliest tell of an Iran-related chokepoint threat before oil headlines catch up → Brent/WTI, oil tanker freight (TCE rates)

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US State Dept Travel Advisory level changes

travel.state.gov advisories RSS/JSON feed

Formal advisory upgrades are lagging but market-moving catalysts (insurance, aviation, tourism) — clocking the raw feed beats waiting for news aggregation → regional airline/tourism equities, EM currency baskets

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US SAM.gov defense contract award velocity

SAM.gov / USASpending.gov public API

A surge in munitions procurement awards precedes public announcements of resupply to allies (Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan) → defense primes (LMT, RTX, NOC, GD), munitions subcontractors

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OFAC SDN list daily delta

OFAC Sanctions List Service (SLS) API (sanctionslist.ofac.treas.gov) / CSV download

Sanctions designations are a direct, immediately tradeable geopolitical action against specific sectors/countries (shipping, banking, oil) → sanctioned-country oil discount spreads, shadow-fleet shipping names

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US CBP Southwest border encounter counts

CBP.gov Nationwide Encounters public data tables (official CSV)

Nationality mix shifts track upstream instability (Venezuela collapse, Haiti gang war) ahead of mainstream coverage → US immigration-policy-sensitive equities, remittance-flow proxies

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Ukraine air raid alert duration by oblast

Ukraine's official air alert map API (alerts.in.ua has a free API for developers) or vadym-nikolaiev alerts feed

Alert duration/frequency by region is a granular, high-frequency proxy for where Russian strike pressure is concentrating, ahead of MoD summaries → Ukrainian grain corridor risk, European gas/electricity prices tied to Ukraine grid strikes

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Black Sea Grain export vessel count via AIS at Ukrainian ports

Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority (uspa.gov.ua) statistics or JMDI/Black Sea Grain Initiative dashboards (where still published)

Port throughput is a direct real-supply signal for wheat/corn markets ahead of USDA reports → wheat/corn futures, Ukraine sovereign debt

FREEweeklyban:lowtB

Panama Canal Authority daily transit/draft restriction level

Panama Canal Authority (pancanal.com) advisory-to-shipping notices

While drought-driven, restriction changes interact with Red Sea rerouting to compound global shipping-capacity stress — useful cross-chokepoint signal → global container freight rates

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Taiwan Strait commercial flight route deviation count

Flightradar24 flight-path data cross-referenced with Taiwan MND exercise NOTAMs

Airline routing decisions reveal real-time private assessment of exercise danger zones, ahead of full media coverage → Taiwan/China regional airline costs, Taiwan risk premium

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US DoD Global War on Terror casualty/press briefing release timing

defense.gov press releases and transcripts (public RSS)

Briefing frequency and topic emphasis is a soft but quantifiable proxy for operational tempo the Pentagon is willing to acknowledge → defense sector sentiment, Red Sea risk basket

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Reuters/AP wire mention velocity for chokepoint keywords

Reuters World News RSS / AP News RSS free feeds

Simple mention-velocity is a crude but free news-flow proxy usable as a control variable against the more specific signals above → broad geopolitical-risk basket, VIX correlation check

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UNHCR Operational Data Portal displacement counts

UNHCR ODP (data.unhcr.org) public API

Displacement stock changes are a slower-moving but official confirmation of conflict severity that can validate or fade faster ACLED-style event signals → humanitarian-crisis-adjacent aid/logistics contractor demand, host-country fiscal stress

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ADS-B tracking of government/military aircraft to flashpoints

ADS-B Exchange (adsbexchange.com) historical/live feed

Unscheduled diplomatic or military transport traffic spikes ahead of announced visits, arms deliveries, or evacuations, often before press confirmation → event-driven geopolitical trades around specific visits/deliveries

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SIPRI Arms Transfers Database new-entry velocity

SIPRI Arms Transfers Database (sipri.org) public query tool/CSV export

SIPRI logs transfers with a lag but is the only complete, non-self-reported cross-check on defense-contractor export claims and regional rearmament pace → defense-contractor export-order confirmation, regional arms-race trades

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Locked — held back

Redacted and held back — our highest-signal feeds plus anything with compliance restrictions. Not for sale yet. The FREE and PREMIUM tiers are on pricing.